World cup top scorer betting guide and World Cup betting tips from Scotland's number one team of tipsters at Scottish Football Tips

World Cup Top Scorer Betting Guide

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Group A

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Egypt

Uruguay

Group B

Portugal

Spain

Morocco

Iran

Group C

France

Australia

Peru

Denmark

Group D

Argentina

Iceland

Croatia

Nigeria

Group E

Brazil

Switzerland

Costa Rica

Serbia

Group F

Germany

Mexico

Sweden

Korea Rep.

Group G

Belgium

Panama

Tunisia

England

Group H

Poland

Senegal

Colombia

Japan

World Cup Top Scorer Betting Guide

The highest ever scorer in a single World Cup tournament was Just Fontaine in 1958. The French man's thirteen goals in just six matches will never be bettered. 

I wasn't around in the 1950s so perhaps that was a predictable outcome. But the increased number of entrants in contemporary tournaments makes it ever more difficult to predict (which is why we are producing this World Cup top scorer betting guide).

Although there is one thing certain. The majority of World Cup top scorers come from countries who make it all the way to the semi-finals at least. It stands to reason to finish top scorer you have to play the maximum amount of games. More games equals more chances to score after all. 

James Rodriguez bucked that trend at the last tournament in Brazil. Columbia exiting in the quarter finals meant he only had the five matches to score his six goals.

However you have to go all the way back to 1994 to find another example. Russia's Oleg Salenko managed six goals in just three matches to share the award with Bulgaria's Hristo Stoichkov (he played seven including the 3rd place playoff). 

All in since 1966 only four of the seventeen awardees (including joint winners) played less than the maximum amount of games.

The inference is clear. If you want to find the top scorer in the World Cup your safest bet is to look to the favourites. The teams most likely to qualify for the latter stages contain the players most likely to be at the top end of the goals charts. 

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The team at Scottish Football Tips are scouring the markets looking for ricks in the bookie's prices and we want to share them with you. 

If we're looking specifically at winners it narrows the search down to France, Germany, Brazil, Spain, Argentina and England. They are the only sides in contention to have won the World Cup since 1954. Italy being the only other winners but they haven't qualified. Uruguay (1930, 1950) are the only other side ever to break the dominance of the big seven nations.

Hungary (1954), Sweden (1958), Czechoslovakia (1962) and the Netherlands (1974, 1978, 2010) are the only sides to even puncture the dominance of reaching the final. Frankly, chances are your finalists are going to come from one of the big six. Equally the chances are the top goalscorer is going to come from one or other of those sides, too. 

There have been twenty World Cup tournaments and fourteen of those featured a top scorer or joint top scorer from one of the big seven nations. So if you want to find the top scorer look no further. 

IF you want to find the World Cup top scorer. Your best bet in this instance is of course to play the each way markets. Most bookmakers will offer a quarter of the odds for finishing in the top four. 

Is there then any point in taking Lionel Messi at 10/1? Neymar at 12/1? Or Ronaldo at a best price of 16/1? Or should we look to the less likely and hope they do enough to finish in the top four?

What To Look For In World Cup Top Scorers 

There are a couple of things to try and look out for when trying to find a good selection. Of course nothing is fool proof. James Rodriguez won't have ticked many of these boxes last time out. But these should help make your search easier. 

  • Price - Look for the value first and foremost. This doesn't mean just to take a high price. However if you can find someone who ticks all the other boxes and is in high figures you may be on to a winner.
  • Form - Players on form for club AND most importantly their country could offer up the best opportunity.
  • Record - A player with a good record in major championships is more likely to replicate that form. 
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    Path - Is there an obvious path to the latter stages or are they up against some potential shocks or other behemoths early along the way?
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    Minnows - Do they have early round games against sides that offer the potential for high scores? 
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    Main Goalscorer - Are they the main goal getter for their team? If chances usually fall for them to convert they could be a good bet. Argentina being the obvious example where this rule DOES NOT APPLY!
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    Dark Horses - This obviously won't apply to everyone but is there an outsider you fancy to do really well? If so their main goal threat could represent some value. Looking to each-way markets again this could be an excellent avenue for finding some profit. 

Nobody said this was going to be easy. 

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World Cup Top Scorer Betting Guide

Below we have a group by group betting guide for the World Cup top scorers markets. We are saving our tips for those who sign up for our World Cup Betting Tips package. 

It wasn't possible to look at every player or even a player from every country but most groups have at least four selections highlighted. 

We hope the information below will be of use to everyone. It took a lot of time to collate and research but that won't be time wasted. It helped inform our own selections.

Group A (Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay)

Name


Country

Fyodor Smolov

Russia

Price

100/1

Club Goals 17/18

14 in 22 games for Krasnodar

Int Goals 17/18

6 in 11

Championship Record

1 goal in 4 matches.

In good form for club and country but without the major championships pedigree. Home advantage may, or may not, be beneficial. He is Russia's main goalscorer but as a unit Russia leave plenty to desire.

Name


Country

Edinson Cavani

Uruguay

Price

33/1

Club Goals 17/18

28 in 32 for PSG

Int Goals 17/18

13 in 20 

Championship Record

1 goal in 10 matches.

In incredible form for his club outscoring both Neymar and Mbappe. Also bagged 12 international goals in 2018 alone. Progression likely but potentially facing Portugal or Spain in second round. 

Name


Country

Mohamed Salah

Egypt

Price

40/1

Club Goals 17/18

32 in 36 for Liverpool

Int Goals 17/18

13 in 12

Championship Record

1 goal in 4 matches.

Took the English Premiership by storm this season and in excellent goalscoring form for club and country. But unlikely to venture further than the first round at this year's World Cup. 

Name


Country

Luis Suarez


Uruguay

Price

25/1

Club Goals 17/18

25 in 32 games for Barcelona

Int Goals 17/18

6 in 15

Championship Record

5 goals in 8 matches.

A goal in each game played at the last World Cup who knows what might have been but for the biting incident? One of the world's best strikers but he may share goal scoring duties with Cavani and needs games for goals.  

Egypt are unlikely to go much further but Saudi Arabia represents a chance for all scorers to build their tally. Belgium took four goals off the rank outsiders in March.   

Group B (Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran)

Name


Country

Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal

Price

16/1

Club Goals 17/18

25 in 26 for Real Madrid

Int Goals 17/18

20 in 16

Championship Record

3 goals in 13 matches.

Portugal's driving force is always in with a chance if he is firing. But record at World Cups is poor and his team's defensive style isn't suited to a glut of goals. He could, however, do damage to Iran. Although Morocco shouldn't be underestimated.  

Name


Country

Rodrigo


Spain

Price

100/1

Club Goals 17/18

16 in 36 games for Valencia

Int Goals 17/18

2 in 6

Championship Record

n/a

The late bloomer may beat Diego Costa to the starting striker berth in Russia. If he does 100/1 represents a very interesting price. Reportedly a target for Tottenham and Everton and with Costa off form he has a chance of leading a Spanish line that beat Argentina 6-1 in March.

Name


Country

Khalid Boutaib


Morocco

Price

250/1

Club Goals 17/18

12 in 31 for Malatyaspor

Int Goals 17/18

5 in 8

Championship Record

n/a

Morocco have a big ask in a difficult group. But the African Nations champions conceded zero goals in qualifying and may cause a shock or two. Any chance of progression will rely on Boutaib living up to his potential.  

Name


Country

n/a


Iran

Price

n/a

Club Goals 17/18

n/a

Int Goals 17/18

n/a

Championship Record

n/a

Iran are almost certainly going to finish bottom of the group but they will take confidence from a 1-1 friendly draw with Russia last year. Even still anything other than a price in the hundreds for any player here would be a mugging.    

They say there are no easy games in international football which is patently untrue. But Morocco will not be a pushover even for the likes of Spain in full flow. Iran perhaps less so but it took an injury time Messi goal for Argentina (eventual finalists) to overcome them in the last World Cup. Neither of these sides look likely to take a trouncing though.

Group C (France, Australia, Peru, Denmark)

Name


Country

Antoine Griezmann

France

Price

16/1

Club Goals 17/18

19 in 31 for Atletico Madrid

Int Goals 17/18

6 in 16

Championship Record

0 goals in 3 matches

The Atletico striker made little impact in his last World Cup, a poor one for France. But in the Euros in 2016 he scored six goals in seven matches. A total that could easily top the charts here. Not the worst group either. Certainly opportunities for goals.

Name


Country

Kylian Mbappe

France

Price

40/1

Club Goals 17/18

13 in 27 for PSG

Int Goals 17/18

3 in 12 

Championship Record

n/a

Subject to a transfer fee in the hundreds of millions Mbappe is the future of French football. No doubting his potential but this, his first World Cup, might be too soon for him to break out as a great international. Or he could take it by storm. Opportunity is there.

France should top this group which will give them a difficult although not insurmountable task against the runners up of Group D in the second round. France ought to be looking to the quarters as a minimum. 

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Group D (Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria)

Name


Country

Lionel Messi

Argentina

Price

11/1

Club Goals 17/18

34 in 35 for Barcelona

Int Goals 17/18

7 in 12

Championship Record

5 goals in 15 matches

The Little Magician doesn't have the best of records at major tournament but four of his five World Cup goals came at the last one. He has had another superb season with Barca though. And recent international form is good. Argentina though, so full of attacking talent, the goals are likely to be shared. They have left lots to be desired in recent form too having only qualified in third place. 

Name


Country

Sergio Aguero

Argentina

Price

33/1

Club Goals 17/18

21 in 25 for Man City

Int Goals 17/18

2 in 10

Championship Record

n/a

Aguero will be injured right up to the start of the World Cup if he makes it at all. Will he be refreshed or rusty? Perhaps Higuain at the same price of 33/1 or Dybala at 50/1 and in good form with Juve offer more possibilities. Either way all the Argentinian players are a risk given the attacking talent at their disposal. 

Name


Country

Mario Mandzukic

Croatia

Price

80/1

Club Goals 17/18

5 in 31 for Juventus

Int Goals 17/18

5 in 12

Championship Record

2 goals in 2 matches

Croatia will be many peoples dark horses for this tournament. They have plenty of quality and with Modric pulling the strings Mandzukic could get the chances. A poor league goals total this season is made up for by Champions League goals. If Croatia top this group (possible) the quarter finals are within reach. At that point anything is possible. 

Name


Country

Keleci Iheanacho

Nigeria

Price

150/1

Club Goals 17/18

4 in 24 for Leicester City

Int Goals 17/18

6 in 10

Championship Record

n/a

A young prospect with many years ahead of him. But as a bit part player in the Premier League he is likely to have to wait for another chance to impress on the world stage. Even the Icelandic minnows will cause problems for Nigeria who suffered a difficult defeat to Morocco in the ANC final. 

Argentina and Croatia should come through this group although Iceland will make it tough for both of them. A recent 4-2 win over Argentina will give Nigeria confidence.  

Nobody said this was going to be easy. 

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Group E (Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia)

Name


Country

Gabriel Jesus


Brazil

Price

16/1

Club Goals 17/18

13 in 29 for Man City

Int Goals 17/18

9 in 15

Championship Record

n/a

Gabriel Jesus will have to battle with Robert Firminho from Liverpool for the strikers berth but he is likely to get the nod. Young and inexperienced but in a Brazil side looking good with some excellent form and results under their belt in the build up. 

Name


Country

Neymar


Brazil

Price

12/1

Club Goals 17/18

19 in 20 for PSG

Int Goals 17/18

7 in 16

Championship Record

4 goals in 5 matches

Neymar will come into the championships refreshed after an injury lay off stopped his goal scoring short for PSG. An essential cog in a Brazil side who look slick he performed well in the last World Cup. Top the group and they have a relatively easy path to the quarters where they could face the winners of England's group. They'll be aiming for the semis at worst.  

Name


Country

Duscan Tadic


Serbia

Price

250/1

Club Goals 17/18

6 in 36 for Southampton

Int Goals 17/18

4 in 13

Championship Record

n/a

Despite beating Germany at the last World Cup Serbia went out at the group stage. It was a major disappointment for a side renowned for being difficult to beat. They don't carry the same reputation this year but will be battling it out with Switzerland for qualification to the knockout stages. 

Name


Country

n/a


n/a

Price

n/a

Club Goals 17/18

n/a

Int Goals 17/18

n/a

Championship Record

n/a

n/a

Costa Rica are making up the numbers here and anything other than bottom of the group will be a surprise. The only match they have won in seven was in Scotland which means nothing really. Brazil could knock out a few goals in this group and the path to the quarters/semis is relatively clear.  

Group F (Germany, Mexico, Sweden, Korea Rep.)

Name


Country

Thomas Muller


Germany

Price

33/1

Club Goals 17/18

8 in 29 for Bayern Munich

Int Goals 17/18

6 in 11

Championship Record

10 goals in 13 matches

While drawing a blank in the last two Euro Championships his record in World Cups is exceptional. Despite being only 28 (I know, right?) he has huge big game experience to draw on. Win the group (should) and they (should) avoid Brazil and find an easy path to the quarters. The requisite games look likely. Give Muller the World Cup games and we will almost certainly see goals.  

Name


Country

Hirving Lozano

Mexico

Price

200/1

Club Goals 17/18

17 in 29 for PSV

Int Goals 17/18

7 in 18

Championship Record

n/a

The lesser known youngster of the Mexican attack he has made most appearances from the bench yet still has a good scoring record. His first season with PSV after an €8m transfer has been a success but he may be slipping under the bookies radars. None the less a second place finish sets up a match with Brazil in the second round which will be a big ask. 

Name


Country

Marcus Berg


Sweden

Price

150/1

Club Goals 17/18

25 in 21 for Al Ain


Int Goals 17/18

8 in 14

Championship Record

n/a

Now plying his trade in the Gulf Berg could be Sweden's best chance of goals after the retirement of Ibrahimovich. They have a tough job to get any further than the groups and even if they do they will be no match for Brazil in the second round. He had an excellent qualifying campaign with eight goals in eleven matches. 

Name


Country

n/a


n/a

Price

n/a

Club Goals 17/18

n/a

Int Goals 17/18

n/a

Championship Record

n/a

n/a

South Korea are the least likely of the four to progress. Outside of Germany the second round should be the limit of these teams aspirations. 

Group G (Belgium, Panama, Tunisia, England)

Name


Country

Harry Kane


England

Price

16/1

Club Goals 17/18

30 in 37 for Tottenham

Int Goals 17/18

7 in 7

Championship Record

n/a

How many goals he gets could depend on how many he tries to claim but there is no doubting Kane's quality. Some may suggest he went off the boil towards the end of the English season but seven goals in his last seven games tells a different story. A path to the quarters is well within their reach with Group H (the easiest group) on their side of the draw. After that it becomes more difficult. 

Name


Country

Romelu Lukaku

Belgium

Price

20/1

Club Goals 17/18

16 in 34 for Man Utd

Int Goals 17/18

16 in 11

Championship Record

1 goal in 4 matches

Ended the league season in good form but in superb form internationally with ten goals in his last six games. A hattrick against Gibraltar should add context but like Kane a quarter final berth is laid out on front of him. Again, like Kane, that's when it gets tough. 

There is a real battle on for group winner here but it matters little. As long as Belgium and England both qualify a path to the quarter finals is as easy as it gets (although Columbia might argue with that their qualification form was poor). With Panama suffering a bruising 6-0 defeat to Switzerland recently there is also the potential for a high scoring outcome for one or both. 

Group H (Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan)

Name


Country

Robert Lewandowski

Poland

Price

33/1

Club Goals 17/18

29 in 30 for Bayern

Int Goals 17/18

16 in 10

Championship Record

n/a

One of the world's top strikers may be hamstrung by his cohorts. Progression is within their each but any further than the second round would be a surprise. None of the other sides in the group are likely to give anything up too easily. 

Name


Country

Radamel Falcao

Colombia

Price

50/1

Club Goals 17/18

18 in 25 for Monaco

Int Goals 17/18

4 in 12

Championship Record

1 goal in 4 matches

Having missed the last World Cup while in the prime of his career he may have a point to prove. But Columbia's qualification form must be of concern. Tentative favourites to win the group there are no guarantees here.  

Sadio Mane at 80/1 may also be of interest in a pacy and physical Senegal side. While he is not an out and out striker Senegal have a chance of causing a small shock and pipping either Poland or Columbia to one of the top two places. But the second round could be as far as any side from this group can progress to. 

About the Author Vincent Mulligan

Vincent is the originator of Scottish Football Tips. He has dragged the site kicking and screaming (him not the site) to become the leading tipster site for Scottish Football. Wherever you see the name 'Fitba Tips' you'll know he has left his mark. Not necessarily a good thing.

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