Trading Scottish Football the SPFL (Scottish Professional Football League)

Trading Scottish Football 22nd December

Share

Trading Scottish football every week with Scottish Football Tips

Last weekend saw us lose 4%+ from our winnings because of three late goals across two matches. Dumbarton were putting up a very good show at Raith Rovers (as predicted) while a cruel winner for Clyde saw our Annan punt fall at the death. 

Got to take the rough with the smooth in this game but that doesn't make it hurt any less. 

Value is thin on the ground this weekend but there are a couple of underdogs worth a look and a few goals markets overpriced. 

Trading The Scottish Premiership  

Taking recent form into account and Hearts' injury ravaged side there is no doubt in my mind Aberdeen have retained some value on the WDW markets. But I believe there to be even more available on the goals markets where you can get +2.5 goals at 2.38 (11/8).

Of course the conventional wisdom will suggest Craig Levein will set his side up here to grind out a result with a 0-0 draw being seen as an excellent return. And you know what? He probably will.

But Hearts will struggle to do that given their problems at centre of defence. Yet another centre-half landed on the injury table last weekend leaving them incredibly short. 

Instead I posit this game has every chance of going the same way as the vast majority of both sides' recent matches. And that is goals aplenty. 

Since we started tracking the stats (ED: Big news on our stats tracking in the coming week, before xmas, keep your eyes peeled!) eight of Aberdeen's last ten and eight of Hearts' last eleven have seen at least three goals. 

A record like that deserves an odds-on price and marking it up at 1.91 (10/11) could be deemed conservative.  Although we should account for the nature of the contest, or at least the traditional way in which it is played out.

But right now Hearts are defending like relegation candidates. Having conceded twenty-one goals in their last ten league matches their current defensive rating* bests only one other side in the league and Dundee conceded five here during the week.

This is worth a 2% investment at that price. 

*We have devised our own defence and attack ratings for each side in the SPFL and this is what we base our 'ratings' on.

Trading The Scottish Championship  

Only one small investment from the Championship with Inverness worth taking at the poor, and showing few signs of improvement, Morton.

Still unbeaten on the road ICT aren't a side to get too heavily involved with due to their penchant for a draw and it would be foolhardy to take anything other than draw no bet insurance. 

The difference in Championship matches this season will be in the team who can get amongst the goals. Indeed the Championship standings could be delineated from position one to ten by goals scored. A rare occurrence indeed.

Morton have a big problem in that area although they have been pinching the odd goal here and there which is keeping them out of the relegation mix. However, only Alloa have a lower shots on target ratio than The Ton (2.7 per game over the last eleven measured games).

Against sides more fancied and higher rated they have struggled more often than not. Blanks were drawn against Dunfermline, Alloa, Ross County, Ayr Utd and Falkirk and that is what gives Inverness the edge in this for my money.

A small 0.5% of bankroll investment on 0.0 asian handicap at 1.82 (5/6) should suffice.

Trading Scottish League One  

Nothing from League One this week. 

Trading Scottish League Two  

There are a couple of long shots in League Two who deserve a look at least. But there remains every chance the market will see them lengthen yet again by the time Saturday afternoon comes around.

So I am keeping the powder dry on these for now and will either take the plunge Friday/Saturday or during our inplay betting tips service on Saturday afternoon. 

If you haven't joined our Telegram group for the inplay service yet then get in touch (it's really simple). This is where any late advice gets posted and where most of our bigger investments have been made this season.

As Colin pointed out in his weekly lower league tips article market watching is a big player (increasingly so with value disappearing so fast when markets open) for the discerning punter. So it's worth getting involved even if inplay betting is not something you take part in. 

Trading Scottish Football Betting Selections

Scroll across the page on mobile to view the full table.

Trading Scottish Football Selections

Price

Bookmaker

Stake (%)

Star Rating

Aberdeen - v - Hearts - +2.5 Total Goals

@ 2.38 (11/8)


@ 2.3 (13/10)

McBookie/BV,



bet365


2%

Inverness - 0.0 Asian Handicap - v Morton

@ 1.82 (5/6)


@ 1.8 (4/5)

McBookie/BV



bet365

0.5%

Trading Scottish Football Staking Plan

About the Author Vincent Mulligan

Vincent is the originator of Scottish Football Tips. He has dragged the site kicking and screaming (him not the site) to become the leading tipster site for Scottish Football. Wherever you see the name 'Fitba Tips' you'll know he has left his mark. Not necessarily a good thing.

follow me on:
>