Date: 18th December 2015
Time: 19:45
On current form Morton have the advantage over Raith Rovers but there is little to separate them in the table.
Two goals is precisely the difference that gives the Greenock side a place in the top four. Raith have scored more but conceded two more than they have scored.
With The Ton going for seven Championship games unbeaten there is plenty of hope for the home fans. Particularly after their excellent 2-2 draw at Ibrox last Saturday.
The major danger to a Morton victory is an ‘after the Lord Mayor’s show’ affect. This is an anomaly that certainly exists for teams who have recently overcome the odds against Rangers.
Twenty-five of thirty-eight teams who took points off Rangers in the last three years failed to win their next game. Four of those games that did go on to win their next match were wins for Hearts and Hibs who should be expected to win regardless of what came before.
I analysed these stats hoping to find a comprehensive reason to oppose Morton on Friday night. It did enough to put me off backing Morton but at the prices I can’t place too much faith in Raith. Instead I am looking to the goals markets and the case for a shortage of goals is much more compelling.
Morton haven’t hit the goalscoring heights at home this season with just five in their seven league games. Six of those games have seen less than three total goals with a 0-4 win for Rangers the exception.
Including cup competitions there have been under 2.5 goals in seven out of eleven home matches at Cappielow. In total matches, home and away, games involving Morton have seen +2.5 goals in just eight out of twenty-three matches.
Raith have been hit and miss for goals but away from home seven of their twelve games have seen less than three goals. Only two teams have scored in the league at Cappielow, Rangers and Falkirk, so scoring is going to be hard to come by.
Amazingly, in the last twenty games between the sides at Cappielow only three games have seen +2.5 goals. That stat does go back a few seasons but it certainly adds to my compulsion to back unders in this match up.
Morton v Raith Rovers Betting Preview Betting Odds
A home win is a little too short to be backable for me at a best 2.25 (5/4) with McBookie and bet365. The draw is best priced at McBookie and Ladbrokes at 3.6 (13/5) and the away win is 3.1 (21/10) with McBookie.
On the goals markets Coral offer 2.15 (23/20) for under 2.5 goals and that’s the bet I will be taking.
Anytime goalscorer backers should look no further than the ever impressive Denny Johnstone who is 2.4 (7/5) with bet365.
Morton v Raith Rovers betting preview free football tips and betting tips
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 with Coral
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