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The first thing you need is a starter bankroll. It is up to you how much your starter roll is and this will affect all other aspects of BMR. Whatever you decide make it affordable. If you start with an amount that you find easily replaceable you can ignore BMR temporarily while you go all out to build your bankroll.
However you must remain disciplined. Set yourself a level where BMR will kick in and once it does stick to it. Discipline is key to any hopes of returning a steady profit.
1) Bet Sizing – The STANDARD BET SIZE (SBS) is up to you but for the purposes of this explanation we will use a value of 2% of the NOTIONAL ROLL (NR). Starting with a Notional Roll (NR) of £500 makes your standard bet size £10. You may increase the bet size to 3/4/5/6/7% for Banker Bets or when you see exceptional value. Under no circumstances should you ever expose more than 20% of your entire bankroll.
That means your bankroll should never be exposed by 20% or more even on an accumulation of bets. If you expose that much to risk at any one time you are playing with fire.
2) Actual Bankroll - Your actual bankroll is the exact amount of money you have in your betting bank. The exact figure, updated as soon as possible when bets are placed and won or lost. However this is not the figure you use to calculate your standard bet size. This is where the notional roll comes in to play.
3) Notional Roll – Convention suggests that you should be able to increase the size of your Standard Bet Size (SBS) as and when your Actual Bankroll (ABR) increases. This means that your SBS would vary greatly on a day-to-day basis depending on success/failure rates.
However the hardest thing to do after increasing your SBS is lowering it again after a bad run. Therefore if you increase your stakes regularly and try and keep the bankroll/betsize ratio fluent you are likely to lose discipline and end up betting outside of bankroll limitations.
Hence the idea of the NOTIONAL ROLL (NR). The Notional Roll (NR) rule basically means that you determine your bankroll to be at a notional value until you reach a MILESTONE (ML) where you can safely increase your Standard Bet Size (SBS) based on Notional Roll (NR) + a CONTINGENCY (C).
4) Contingency – When deciding to increase your Standard Bet Size (SBS) after hitting a new Notional Roll (NR) Milestone (ML) it is vital that you place a Contingency (C) value on your Actual Bankroll (ABR) in relation to your Notional Roll (NR).
The contingency value in this example is 20%. This means the Standard Bet Size (SBS) only increases when your Actual Bankroll (ABR) reaches a predetermined value based on Notional Roll (NR) + Contingency (C).
Reaching this Milestone (ML) allows you to move to the next level of your Notional Roll (NR). The failsafe here means you can have 10x Standard Bet Sizes (SBS) that can go wrong before you would need to drop the Standard Bet Size (SBS) and Notional Roll (NR) because of slipping below the Notional Roll (NR) level with your Actual Bankroll (ABR).
Once your Actual Bankroll (ABR) drops below the Notional Roll (NR) you must drop your Standard Bet Size (SBS) in relation to your previous Notional Roll. There is no worse feeling than having to drop your SBS/NR (other than going broke) so do not override your contingency. It is a failsafe designed to help.
5) Milestones – These are pre-determined values of Actual Bankroll (ABR) where you decide to increase your Notional Roll (NR) and Standard Bet Size (SBS). It is entirely up to you what increments you wish to increase your Notional Roll (NR) and Standard Bet Size (SBS) at but do work it out before hand. It helps with maintaining discipline.
|SBS||NR||Contingency @ 20%||ABR|
NR = SBS x 50 or ABR x 0.83333333*
SBS = NR x 0.02
ML = NR + C = NR x 1.2
ML ≤ ABR
None of these rules are set in stone. You must find some bankroll management techniques that you are comfortable with. There are also different betting staking plans that can be utilised and mixed with others.
But it is incredibly important to implement bankroll management rules of some kind. Otherwise you may find yourself going broke sooner than you would like.
This is particularly important when you are starting out on the journey to becoming a profitable football bettor. When at that stage your number one goal should be TO NOT GO BROKE. Stay in the game and over time you will become good enough to start deriving profit from your passion.
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