General Inplay Betting Rules
Here's the thing about inplay betting. A lot of the time you are working with very little information. Unless it's Scottish or Irish football I tend to be working with nothing more than the stats provided by the betting client.
A lot of people will say it's foolhardy to take an interest in matches based on nothing more than the stats provided by the bookmaker. Some of which, like possession, can have little bearing on an outcome.
We could argue the toss over that all day, every day but I refer to my results to back up my own opinion on the matter. Now by no means am I suggesting you shouldn't back up your opinions with as much information as you can get your hands on. The more info the better. Always.
But information on the lesser known leagues or pre season friendlies can be hard to come by. Which leads me on to my first rule.
Trust The Stats
The stats won't always point you in the right direction. But there are simple ways to spot stats that are erroneous.
The game in the image suggests there have been one hundred attacks in twenty-one minutes. Forty-eight of those attacks have been 'dangerous'.
That makes five attacks per minute. One every twelve seconds. I think we can all agree they should be taken with a pinch of salt.
But the other stats, the shots, are pretty hard to get drastically wrong. They can have a bit of weight applied.
An excellent tool, and one that should be used when available, is the shots on target indicator under the 'Event Locations' tab on the bet365 client.
This is a great way to see where shots are coming from. More shots in the danger zone will, more often than not, lead to conversions.
A good way of determining which side looks more likely to score even if the other stats are misleading.
Arming yourself with more information is always a good thing, though. An excellent site is corner-stats. A subscription based site with all manner of stats. Or keep your own.
But you must trust the stats, wherever they come from, and use them to gauge where your investments are getting laid down.
It's A Game Of Two Halves And Goals Change Games
Cliches so overused even people who have never watched a match rhyme them off. But do you know why cliches become so entrenched? Because more often than not they speak an undeniable truth.
This is especially true when it comes to inplay betting. When betting inplay you often need to be very quick to beat the market to a price. There are people out there using all manner and means to divine profit from inplay markets.
Their key drivers are the inplay match stats. So when you see stats that suggest there is value in a particular market you often need to get in fast before the price is gone.
This is especially true when taking on big mismatches (more on that in lesson three). An underdog may have started the first ten minutes on fire and they may well take that all the way to half-time (sometimes you get a half of two halves).
But more often than not the big pre-match favourite will find their feet in the second half. So backing first and second half markets as opposed to the 12X markets is a personal favourite of mine (more again in lesson three). Although there are, of course, exceptions to every rule.
The same applies to goals. When goals go in, whether in your favour or not, the flow of the game tends to change. This can be a most important consideration when you just miss out on a bet because a goal goes in.
Don't just steam in again thinking the flow will remain. Take some time to reassess.
Only Mugs Back Friendlies (Says Who?)
"Dont' back friendlies because you don't know what team will be out or how they will approach it".
That's an old adage that people live by. And I suppose you can kind of see where people are coming from. Who really does know how a side is going to approach a friendly? Are they going to try out a new tactic? Or trialists? Or youths? Or will they change their entire team at half-time (see above)? You're playing blind, right?
Almost certainly, yes, you often are playing blind. But do you know who else is playing blind? Got it in one. Trust the stats and you can often divine a market that is completely priced up the wrong way around.
I adore pre-season friendly timeframes. Just after the new year for summer leagues and the summer for winter leagues. I assure you friendlies can be an absolute gold mine if you approach them correctly.
I have lost count of the amount of friendlies where I have seen long odds underdogs become short priced favourites inside fifteen minutes of the first half. If you're on the ball you can be the person at the head of that price crash. Be wary though and remember, it's a game of two halves and goals change games.
Only mugs don't back friendlies inplay. That's the long and short of it.
You Don't Need The Discipline Of A Zen Master
To be a zen master you need to be spend hours of your day in meditation and self reflection. Who has got the time for that? Just think of all the opportunities you could be missing out on.
Discipline is key. Don't think I am saying you should not be disciplined. But there are a few simple rules you can follow that really ought to suffice.
Lesson 2 will focus on the markets you should be focusing on inplay and lesson 3 will focus on the different strategies I personally employ.