Weekly Betting Review – Nov 30th – Dec 6th 2015

Weekly Betting Review

The weekly betting review is a new feature that will attempt to analyse the previous week’s bets, look at what went right and what went wrong. 

It has three main reasons for coming into being;

  1. For you, the reader, who may want an insight into my selections, the reasons for choosing them, reasons for grouping them together, reasons for letting some go etc.
  2. For me it will be a good tool to help me elucidate my own thoughts and spot my own flaws going forward.
  3. Hopefully it will engender a little discussion and interaction. While I am here on the pretence that I have something to offer you, there is plenty I can learn from you, too.

Do get involved. Ask me questions and question my reasoning. This should be a two-way street so lets start winning together.


 

 

Weekly Statistics

Number Of Bets 8
Winners 2
Losers 6
Total Investment 485
Total Returns 349.58
Return On Investment -28%
Highest Priced Winner 4.58
Lowest Priced Loser 1.93
Biggest Disappointment Stenhousemuir
Best Pick Stirling

 

Due to the adverse weather conditions the results from this week can be stored under ‘freakish’. The low strike rate can be accounted for by low stakes/high odds bets. A low strike rate on these bets is perfectly acceptable to me.

Most of my high stakes/low odds bets were cancelled because of the weather. Only two survived and they were both teams to score bets featuring Dundee/Aberdeen and Ross County/Saint Johnstone. One winner and one loser.

Despite the Dundee/Aberdeen bet returning a loss I stick by it. A losing bet is not always a bad bet in the same way a winning bet is not always a good bet. The price was right for that bet (1.93) and I would place it again every time with one caveat, the weather.

On Saturday morning I mentioned on the Pie and Bovril forum that I would happily have seen every game cancelled on Saturday morning and my stakes returned. That would have been a better result than what eventually played out (although I am purposely ignoring the 20/1+ returns from the Scottish Football Predictions Competition. Had I included these I would be in profit for the week).

My only other winner was a Dunfermline(-1) and Stirling double (originally a treble with Falkirk). In hindsight these maybe should have been high stake singles. The reason I chose them as an acca was my already high investment.

I think you need to be aware of your overall investment on any given day. Anytime you’re approaching risking 10%+ of your bankroll you could be in a sticky patch. There is every reason to believe you could lose all bets placed and take a big hit to your roll.

My routine involves going through the divisions from the Scottish Premiership to Scottish League 2 and placing bets/writing previews in that order. By the time I had reached Dunfermline I was already heavily invested and as such aggregated that bet with others to lessen the potential hit. This is perhaps something I should change?

My biggest disappointment of the week was Stenhousemuir away to East Kilbride in the cup. Not to take anything away from the Lowland League side but I think the weather played it’s part here again.

Regardless, they have let me down for the second week in a row and they, alongside Annan Athletic, are on the list and more likely to be utilised for goals bets in the future.

At this point I think I need to reevaluate my first goalscorer choices. These bets saw the season off to a flyer with James Tavernier (20/1), Mikael Lustig (25/1), Dedryck Boyata(25/1) and Jackson Irvine(20/1) all landing in the first two months.

With no winners in November I have decided to decrease the stakes for these bets. I was placing 20% of my standard bet size on high odds first goalscorer bets but will now decrease this to between 8% and 12% for future bets.


 

The One That Got Away

Dunfermline(-1) is the one that got away. While it won as part of a double it was for a low stake. It should have been a heavily invested single looking back on it. Perhaps it should have been the bet of the week but it’s hard to beat Saint Johnstone BTTS as a NAP.


 

That’s it for this week. Have you got anything to add? Any questions you want to ask? Did you see a bet you wish you had put on in hindsight?

Comment at the end of the post and I will get back to you. Good luck in the week ahead, may the betting gods be on your side.

About the author

Vincent Mulligan

Vincent is the originator of Scottish Football Tips. He has dragged the site kicking and screaming (him not the site) to become the leading tipster site for Scottish Football. Wherever you see the name 'Fitba Tips' you'll know he has left his mark. Not necessarily a good thing.

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