The weekly betting review is a new feature that will attempt to analyse the previous week’s bets, look at what went right and what went wrong.
It has three main reasons for coming into being;
- For you, the reader, who may want an insight into my selections, the reasons for choosing them, reasons for grouping them together, reasons for letting some go etc.
- For me it will be a good tool to help me elucidate my own thoughts and spot my own flaws going forward.
- Hopefully it will engender a little discussion and interaction. While I am here on the pretence that I have something to offer you, there is plenty I can learn from you, too.
Do get involved. Ask me questions and question my reasoning. This should be a two-way street so lets start winning together.
|Number Of Bets||8|
|Return On Investment||-28%|
|Highest Priced Winner||4.58|
|Lowest Priced Loser||1.93|
Due to the adverse weather conditions the results from this week can be stored under ‘freakish’. The low strike rate can be accounted for by low stakes/high odds bets. A low strike rate on these bets is perfectly acceptable to me.
Most of my high stakes/low odds bets were cancelled because of the weather. Only two survived and they were both teams to score bets featuring Dundee/Aberdeen and Ross County/Saint Johnstone. One winner and one loser.
Despite the Dundee/Aberdeen bet returning a loss I stick by it. A losing bet is not always a bad bet in the same way a winning bet is not always a good bet. The price was right for that bet (1.93) and I would place it again every time with one caveat, the weather.
On Saturday morning I mentioned on the Pie and Bovril forum that I would happily have seen every game cancelled on Saturday morning and my stakes returned. That would have been a better result than what eventually played out (although I am purposely ignoring the 20/1+ returns from the Scottish Football Predictions Competition. Had I included these I would be in profit for the week).
My only other winner was a Dunfermline(-1) and Stirling double (originally a treble with Falkirk). In hindsight these maybe should have been high stake singles. The reason I chose them as an acca was my already high investment.
I think you need to be aware of your overall investment on any given day. Anytime you’re approaching risking 10%+ of your bankroll you could be in a sticky patch. There is every reason to believe you could lose all bets placed and take a big hit to your roll.
My routine involves going through the divisions from the Scottish Premiership to Scottish League 2 and placing bets/writing previews in that order. By the time I had reached Dunfermline I was already heavily invested and as such aggregated that bet with others to lessen the potential hit. This is perhaps something I should change?
My biggest disappointment of the week was Stenhousemuir away to East Kilbride in the cup. Not to take anything away from the Lowland League side but I think the weather played it’s part here again.
Regardless, they have let me down for the second week in a row and they, alongside Annan Athletic, are on the list and more likely to be utilised for goals bets in the future.
At this point I think I need to reevaluate my first goalscorer choices. These bets saw the season off to a flyer with James Tavernier (20/1), Mikael Lustig (25/1), Dedryck Boyata(25/1) and Jackson Irvine(20/1) all landing in the first two months.
With no winners in November I have decided to decrease the stakes for these bets. I was placing 20% of my standard bet size on high odds first goalscorer bets but will now decrease this to between 8% and 12% for future bets.
The One That Got Away
Dunfermline(-1) is the one that got away. While it won as part of a double it was for a low stake. It should have been a heavily invested single looking back on it. Perhaps it should have been the bet of the week but it’s hard to beat Saint Johnstone BTTS as a NAP.
That’s it for this week. Have you got anything to add? Any questions you want to ask? Did you see a bet you wish you had put on in hindsight?
Comment at the end of the post and I will get back to you. Good luck in the week ahead, may the betting gods be on your side.