Had you offered me on this day last year that I could turn into the final month of the year with more than 3,500 points profit I would have snapped your hand off.
Had you then told me I would turn into the new year having lost 30%+ in one month I would have been fit for tears. I was fit for tears as the new year bore in. The past year will be remembered in the main for two things. The capitulation in December being the bad part.
The other notable event was my decision to focus almost exclusively on Scottish football. This was a decision made for various reasons and it has borne fruit. I turned into December with a ROI from Scottish football singles of more than 24.85%. December decimated it meaning the return ended up being 12.76%.
Anyway, that’s my gripe with December over. Onto the review.
End of Year Betting Review 2015
To review my bets over the year I broke them up into sections. The first sections were singles, doubles, trebles and four-fold or more accumulators. I then further separated these by price ranges of 1-1.99, 2-2.49, 2.5-4.99, 5-9.99 and 10+.
Then I analysed individual bet types to check my performance over the year looking at +2.5 goals, both teams to score, Asian Handicap, First Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer and WDW.
The results should illuminate areas of concern that I can eradicate from my betting patterns.
This first table shows all single bets throughout 2015 and the price ranges in which they were placed. Singles had a positive return of 15% over the year.
- Single bets in each price range are profitable, even the bets at 10+ (mostly first goalscorer bets) that only returned as a winner 14 times out of 104 bets.
The first thing to notice from the doubles table is that I don’t place many doubles. Doubles returned negatively at -17% over the year.
- The price range most doubles were placed in has only 4 winners from 25 bets and is clearly unprofitable. This probably infers that doubles containing bets of 1.73 (8/11) ish and higher are not worth continuing with.
- As an aside I also looked at doubles ranging from 1.7 to 2.3 and discovered 6 winners from 9 bets. It’s not a huge sample to go by but it does suggest I should be attempting more even money doubles in the coming year.
This table again points very clearly to a couple of things. Trebles returned negatively at -45% over the year.
- Trebles as a whole are a losing strategy, particularly those in the 2.5 – 4.99 price range. This chimes with the doubles also.
Accumulators (four and more selections)[supsystic-tables id=’6′]
Accumulators returned negatively at -28% over the year.
- No surprise that accas as a whole are unprofitable although in this instance the 2.5 -4.99 price range is the only one approaching profitability.
- The bets in this price range will likely consist of short priced goals bets.
- This suggests that four-folds of 1.4 – 1.5 (2/5 – 1/2) selections could be more successful than trebles with 1.73 (8/11) selections.
The main thing to take from analysing these is that single bets are where the profit is. This is not new knowledge. Most football bettors will know that single bets are more profitable. The less variables the greater chance of correctly predicting an outcome.
Bet Types[supsystic-tables id=’7′]
WDW – Win Draw Win single bets. These include Draw No Bet and European Handicaps. It may be worth drilling down further into these to see if the European handicaps had a positive or negative affect on the overall returns.
AH – Asian Handicap single bets. These include all bets on the Asian Handicap market which include 0.0 Asian Handicap, the equivalent to Draw No Bet.
BTTS – Both teams to score singles, doubles, trebles and accumulator bets.
+2.5 – Total goals singles, doubles, trebles and accumulator bets.
FGS – First Goalscorer singles bets.
AGS – Anytime Goalscorer singles bets.
This table is probably the most revealing of all
- Win Draw Win bets remain very profitable despite the popular lurch towards goals bets.
- Both teams to score is an area to be looked at more often. Along with the +2.5 goals bets the singles returns for these bets are much higher.
- Asian Handicap bets stand out as one of my best performing bets and should be utilised more often.
- +2.5 goals bets have a disappointing overall return but the stats for all accumulator bets with a +2.5 goals element are included. That undoubtedly distorts the returns.
- First Goalscorer bets have an excellent return but the strike rate is extremely low. This means you can go long spells without winners which can be soul destroying. These bets will account for the profitable nature of bets at a price of 10+.
- Anytime goal scorer bets should be kicked into touch. A poor strike rate and dreadful return on investment demands it.
Points Of Action
- The first thing I need to do is re-design my spreadsheet. It was far too difficult to analyse the performance this year.
- More singles, less doubles and trebles in the 2.5 – 4.99 price range.
- Devise a double at even money strategy.
- Avoid anytime goalscorer bets entirely.
- Doubles, trebles and accumulators should be limited to selections of 1.6 (3/5) and lower.
It should be noted that the tables above do not include all bets that I placed over the year. Bets such as team goals, highest scoring half, win to nil, correct scores etc are not included due to their rarity.
This means that the table above does not correctly spell out the overall returns for the year. The overall returns for the year are in the table below.[supsystic-tables id=’8′]
The overall Return On Investment is acceptable but disappointing. Since the Scottish Football Season returned and I focused exclusively on Scottish Football the returns have risen to more than 13%. By cutting out or amending my strategy for trebles and accumulators that should see a better overall return for this year.
I should add at this point that the nature of what I do as a football bettor and a football tipster means I fall between two stools. I want to make profit but I also need to provide for followers of the website.
There is no doubting that what people want are high odds/low stakes accumulators. As such I will continue providing these each week and as a point of principle I will continue backing them with my own hard earned.
This will inevitably skew my overall results so in an attempt to negate this I will be backing them with lower stakes than I have been the past year. This will reduce the thrill of the bets with the potential for wins less likely but the stats don’t lie.
At the end of the day the goal is to make profit and while it is clear I am doing that the trebles and accumulators are clearly a big drain on the overall returns.
I hope this analysis has been of benefit to you and encourages you to analyse your own betting patterns to improve your returns in the long term.
Good luck in 2016 and remember to be beware of next December.