Arbroath v Cowdenbeath betting preview
William Hill Scottish Cup
Location: Gayfield Park
Date: 7th December 2015.
There are two Scottish Cup games being played out tonight after Wick Academy v Linlithgow Rose fell foul of the weather again. That game will now be played on Wednesday 9th December.
The remaining fixtures, Arbroath v Cowdenbeath and Lothian Thistle Hutchison Vale v Huntly are set to go ahead as things stand.
The weather of course will play a massive factor in the outcome of these games. Pitches will be sodden although the wind has died down.
Arboath v Cowdenbeath Betting Preview
The continuing poor weather has seen an increase in the betting odds for +2.5 total goals in this game. While the rain and wind has died down across the country Arbroath is situated on the coast and winds will still be strong.
Rain is forecast to continue until mid afternoon so there will be little respite for an already sodden surface. This usually means goals are not the way to go. However, there are other factors to consider with Cowdenbeath’s penchant for goals being a major factor.
Twenty-0ne of their last twenty-five away matches have seen +2.5 goals. That’s going all the way back to last December and no doubt included the odd sodden pitch.
With the winner of this tie rewarded with a lucrative tie against Rangers at Ibrox it becomes a must win for both sides. That, coupled with the fact that this is the third attempt, should see both sides go hard for the win.
Another interesting stat is the percentage of Scottish Cup replays that often see a glut of goals. In the last ten seasons 65% of 159 replays saw more than two goals. This percentage is even higher for the early rounds.
If you take out the fifteen games that were quarter or semi final replays (of which only 33% saw three or more goals) the percentage increases to 68%. On that factor alone the price available for +2.5 match goals should be 1.47(47/100).
Arbroath v Cowdenbeath Betting Preview Betting Odds
The question is whether the weather nullifies the value in a price of 1.75(3/4) with McBookie.
Based on nothing more than experience and opinion it is known that the weather will affect the goal production but by how much? That’s an indeterminable factor in my opinion.
My preferred method of dealing with indeterminable factors is to leave well enough alone or play with smaller stakes. Tonight I am going for the latter option. Were it not for the weather I would be all over this game for goals.
Arbroath v Cowdenbeath betting preview free football tips and betting tips
+2.5 total goals @ 1.75 with McBookie